Warden
February 3rd, 2004, 11:28 AM
Can you imagine Paul Kariya playing for the Nashville Predators next season? Or how about the Carolina Hurricanes owning the rights to Nick Lidstrom?
Can you envision Peter Forsberg wearing a Boston Bruins sweater?
Whether executives for those teams have contemplated those particular scenarios is simply speculation, but clearly those teams have planned as if they will have the opportunity to compete for free agent superstars after a new collective-bargaining agreement is reached with players.
Nashville owner Craig Leipold, whose team has either the lowest or second-lowest payroll depending upon who is up and down with Nashville and Pittsburgh, has said publicly that he expects to be a buyer once a new economic landscape is established.
Clearly some teams are planning as if the new system will make it difficult for the usual big spenders, such as Detroit, Dallas, Colorado, etc., to keep their superstars.
Anybody who claims to know what kind of pay structure will be present when the smoke clears is either a fool or a liar because it's impossible to predict what will happen once the lockout begins next fall. Team management acts as if some form of salary cap/luxury tax is a given, and players tell me they won't ever give in on a NFL- style cap or a dollar-per-dollar luxury tax that acts the same as a hard cap.
Every day both sides try to convince me that they are so unified that they would be willing to be shut down for all of next season and beyond in the name of their cause. As always, the truth will be in the middle.
But it will probably take some time for the truth to be discovered and this summer could be the most chaotic summer the NHL has ever known.
Who knows what will happen next fall, but here's what will happen this summer:
¢ More eligible players than ever will choose arbitration because they will clearly be better off having a third party choosing their salary given how tight-fisted teams will be this summer. But teams are going to walk away from some of those awards.
¢ Teams will give qualifying offers to their lower-priced regulars to maintain their rights, but some higher-priced veterans may not get qualifying offers because teams are worried they won't be able to afford them under some form of cap/luxury tax.
Let's use Dallas Stars center Jason Arnott as an example. He's a hard-nosed center who is certainly the kind of player a coach wants for a playoff fight. But he's making $3.85 million this season, and he's the kind of player that is probably not going to get a qualifying offer. He's going to end up a free agent simply because teams believe he's the kind of player who will make less under a new economic system.
¢ Unrestricted free agents, at least the higher-priced ones, are going to sit in limbo because teams can't risk getting tied into salaries in case there is a cap. For example, let's look at the Detroit Red Wings, who have Lidstrom, Kris Draper, Tomas Holmstrom, Chris Chelios, Mathieu Schneider, Brett Hull and Dominik Hasek as potential unrestricted free agents.
As revered as Lidstrom is, how can the Red Wings try to re-sign him at $10 million a season not knowing what's around the corner? They might let most of those players sit with the hope they can still sign them in a new system. Some general manager will take a chance on a free agent because competitiveness will get the best of him. Teams will be tempted by a rough defenseman they have coveted, or the perfect point man for the power play. But you aren't going to see much signing of free agents.
¢ Good European prospects won't get signed because teams won't want to pay the signing bonus and there is an expectation that entry level salaries are going to be altered to be more favorable to teams. Teams will have to sign some of their Canadian Hockey League prospects because they only hold their rights for two seasons.
Whether a new system would force or discourage the re-signing of superstars is a matter of conjecture. But it's true that many teams are expecting many players to change uniforms starting next season.
The official trade deadline is March 9, but teams out of the hunt are trying to move high-priced players earlier so they can take advantage of the expected availability of players next season.
One team official told me recently that I wouldn't believe the caliber of player that had been offered to his team. Some teams that are trying to win the Stanley Cup this season are also trying to figure how to shed payroll and still compete.
There is much grumbling among team officials that owners made a huge mistake in the last negotiation when they agreed to let the contract expire Sept. 15, instead of July 1.
Now teams have to operate this summer under the current CBA knowing that everything will change next fall or thereafter. In addition to seeing a luxury tax, we could see the age for unrestricted free agency fall. It might not be even be in a 28-year-old player's best interest to be signed next season.
Let's suppose that there's a lockout that lasts until January and there's a new economic system in place that discourages or prevents the Red Wings, Rangers and other big spenders from having large payrolls. Let's say that it turns a smattering of restricted free agents into unrestricted free agents.
If that happens, there could suddenly be 50 to 75 important players that would have to be signed or traded. We could see superstars on waivers. We could end up with the most chaotic period in NHL history.
That's why it's at least possible that a player such as Kariya could end up wearing a Predators sweater
By Kevin Allen
Can you envision Peter Forsberg wearing a Boston Bruins sweater?
Whether executives for those teams have contemplated those particular scenarios is simply speculation, but clearly those teams have planned as if they will have the opportunity to compete for free agent superstars after a new collective-bargaining agreement is reached with players.
Nashville owner Craig Leipold, whose team has either the lowest or second-lowest payroll depending upon who is up and down with Nashville and Pittsburgh, has said publicly that he expects to be a buyer once a new economic landscape is established.
Clearly some teams are planning as if the new system will make it difficult for the usual big spenders, such as Detroit, Dallas, Colorado, etc., to keep their superstars.
Anybody who claims to know what kind of pay structure will be present when the smoke clears is either a fool or a liar because it's impossible to predict what will happen once the lockout begins next fall. Team management acts as if some form of salary cap/luxury tax is a given, and players tell me they won't ever give in on a NFL- style cap or a dollar-per-dollar luxury tax that acts the same as a hard cap.
Every day both sides try to convince me that they are so unified that they would be willing to be shut down for all of next season and beyond in the name of their cause. As always, the truth will be in the middle.
But it will probably take some time for the truth to be discovered and this summer could be the most chaotic summer the NHL has ever known.
Who knows what will happen next fall, but here's what will happen this summer:
¢ More eligible players than ever will choose arbitration because they will clearly be better off having a third party choosing their salary given how tight-fisted teams will be this summer. But teams are going to walk away from some of those awards.
¢ Teams will give qualifying offers to their lower-priced regulars to maintain their rights, but some higher-priced veterans may not get qualifying offers because teams are worried they won't be able to afford them under some form of cap/luxury tax.
Let's use Dallas Stars center Jason Arnott as an example. He's a hard-nosed center who is certainly the kind of player a coach wants for a playoff fight. But he's making $3.85 million this season, and he's the kind of player that is probably not going to get a qualifying offer. He's going to end up a free agent simply because teams believe he's the kind of player who will make less under a new economic system.
¢ Unrestricted free agents, at least the higher-priced ones, are going to sit in limbo because teams can't risk getting tied into salaries in case there is a cap. For example, let's look at the Detroit Red Wings, who have Lidstrom, Kris Draper, Tomas Holmstrom, Chris Chelios, Mathieu Schneider, Brett Hull and Dominik Hasek as potential unrestricted free agents.
As revered as Lidstrom is, how can the Red Wings try to re-sign him at $10 million a season not knowing what's around the corner? They might let most of those players sit with the hope they can still sign them in a new system. Some general manager will take a chance on a free agent because competitiveness will get the best of him. Teams will be tempted by a rough defenseman they have coveted, or the perfect point man for the power play. But you aren't going to see much signing of free agents.
¢ Good European prospects won't get signed because teams won't want to pay the signing bonus and there is an expectation that entry level salaries are going to be altered to be more favorable to teams. Teams will have to sign some of their Canadian Hockey League prospects because they only hold their rights for two seasons.
Whether a new system would force or discourage the re-signing of superstars is a matter of conjecture. But it's true that many teams are expecting many players to change uniforms starting next season.
The official trade deadline is March 9, but teams out of the hunt are trying to move high-priced players earlier so they can take advantage of the expected availability of players next season.
One team official told me recently that I wouldn't believe the caliber of player that had been offered to his team. Some teams that are trying to win the Stanley Cup this season are also trying to figure how to shed payroll and still compete.
There is much grumbling among team officials that owners made a huge mistake in the last negotiation when they agreed to let the contract expire Sept. 15, instead of July 1.
Now teams have to operate this summer under the current CBA knowing that everything will change next fall or thereafter. In addition to seeing a luxury tax, we could see the age for unrestricted free agency fall. It might not be even be in a 28-year-old player's best interest to be signed next season.
Let's suppose that there's a lockout that lasts until January and there's a new economic system in place that discourages or prevents the Red Wings, Rangers and other big spenders from having large payrolls. Let's say that it turns a smattering of restricted free agents into unrestricted free agents.
If that happens, there could suddenly be 50 to 75 important players that would have to be signed or traded. We could see superstars on waivers. We could end up with the most chaotic period in NHL history.
That's why it's at least possible that a player such as Kariya could end up wearing a Predators sweater
By Kevin Allen